International trade has been at the core of many political decisions over the past two years, especially in regard to tariffs and trade agreements. Tariffs have been a recurrent tool of economic protection, while trade agreements have sought to balance relations among different economic blocs. With Donald Trump returning to the presidency of the United States in 2025, significant changes are projected that will affect the world’s economies, especially the BRICS countries.

Over the last two years, the global economy has witnessed a surge in protectionist measures, fueled by political and economic uncertainty worldwide. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine disrupted supply chains and heightened the vulnerability of many economies. In this context, the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) began to establish itself as an alternative actor to the Western-led system, promoting trade agreements that challenge the traditional hegemony of the United States and the European Union.

Throughout 2024, BRICS announced its intention to move toward greater economic integration and adopt an alternative currency to reduce its dependency on the U.S. dollar. This move carries not only economic implications but also geopolitical ones, directly challenging the influence of the United States. As this bloc gained momentum, the protectionist stance of the United States from Trump’s previous term resurfaced, and the new policies of 2025 seem poised to impose stricter tariffs to shield the U.S. economy from BRICS imports.

Trump, well-known for his “America First” stance, already used tariffs in his prior term as a means to negotiate and pressure trade partners. It is expected that these measures will intensify now that he is back in office, especially in a more challenging global economic environment. Such policies are likely to directly impact China and India, which have significantly increased their exports to the United States in recent years. Restrictions could extend to key sectors such as technology, manufactured goods, and certain consumer products, exacerbating tensions between emerging economies and Western ones.

In response, BRICS members may look to deepen their internal trade relations and further engage with other emerging markets, aiming to reduce their reliance on the United States while creating an alternative economic system. This could involve forging greater trade agreements with Latin America, Africa, and other markets that seek alternatives to American and European influence. Moreover, China has been actively pushing forward the Belt and Road Initiative, solidifying its presence in various parts of the world and creating trade routes that could compensate for losses in the U.S. market.

Future projections with Trump’s victory and his protectionist policies suggest an increase in the fragmentation of global trade. The United States may take a more aggressive stance in applying tariffs, particularly against countries it sees as direct competitors to its key industrial sectors. This situation could encourage BRICS to accelerate their plans for economic integration and develop financial mechanisms that mitigate exposure to the dollar, as seen through their moves toward the use of local currencies in bilateral trade.

One of the strategies that BRICS could adopt in this context is to enhance cooperation in areas such as technological innovation, infrastructure development, and the transition to renewable energy. The need to reduce dependence on the West might push BRICS to make substantial investments in these sectors, fostering local innovation and the creation of their own supply chains that are not subject to U.S. restrictions.

In conclusion, Trump’s return to the presidency marks a potential return to protectionist trade policies that could intensify tensions with BRICS countries. While the United States may focus on strengthening its domestic economy through the imposition of tariffs, BRICS nations will be motivated to seek alternatives to reduce their dependence on the Western-led financial system. This fragmentation of international trade could redefine global alliances, creating a scenario in which economic competition and the quest for global leadership become more intense than ever.